Category: Advanced Analytics

"A quiet week for rigs counts"

“A quiet week for rigs counts”

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by Bill McBride on 6/17/2018 08:11:00 AM A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on June 15, 2018: • Total oil rig counts rose 1 to 863 • Horizontal oil rigs added 2 to 765…• After a heady gain last week, the Permian gave back 4 rigs Click on graph for […]

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Schedule for Week of June 17, 2018

Schedule for Week of June 17, 2018

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by Bill McBride on 6/16/2018 08:15:00 AM The key economic reports this week are May Housing Starts and Existing home sales. For manufacturing, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. —– Monday, June 18th —– 10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  70, unchanged from […]

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“Upside Risk to Home Prices”

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by Bill McBride on 6/15/2018 05:51:00 PM This is an interesting note today from Goldman Sachs economists Daan Struyven and Marty Young: Upside Risk to Home Prices (A few excerpts): Home prices are growing at a 6.5% annual rate, the fastest pace since 2013. … we review trends in housing demand, supply, and financing fundamentals […]

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Unemployment Rates Lower in 14 states in May

Unemployment Rates Lower in 14 states in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/15/2018 10:21:00 AM From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in May in 14 states and stable in 36 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and […]

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Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in May

Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/15/2018 09:21:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, […]

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Manufacturing “Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State”

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by Bill McBride on 6/15/2018 08:33:00 AM From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity expanded at a faster pace than in May. The general business conditions index rose five points to 25.0, its highest level in several months. … The index for number of […]

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Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey

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by Bill McBride on 6/14/2018 06:56:00 PM Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 19.6, down from 20.1. • At 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase […]

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LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in May

LA area Port Traffic Increases YoY in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/14/2018 01:06:00 PM Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported – and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation’s container port traffic. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the […]

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Calculated Risk: Duy: FOMC Recap

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by Bill McBride on 6/14/2018 11:09:00 AM A few excerpts from Tim Duy at Fed Watch: FOMC Recap The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) completed their June meeting with a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75-2.0 percent. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) revealed […]

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Retail Sales increased 0.8% in May

Retail Sales increased 0.8% in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/14/2018 08:48:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.8 percent from April to May (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.9 percent from May 2017. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and […]

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 218,000

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 218,000

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by Bill McBride on 6/14/2018 08:33:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending June 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 218,000, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 222,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of […]

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“Mortgage Rates Higher Following Fed Forecasts”

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by Bill McBride on 6/13/2018 05:53:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Higher Following Fed Forecasts Mortgage rates moved higher today, following the Fed’s much-anticipated policy announcement. Although the Fed changed quite a few words from the announcement’s previous iteration (far more than normal), it wasn’t the announcement itself that did […]

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Calculated Risk: Housing Inventory Tracking: The Bottom Turn

Calculated Risk: Housing Inventory Tracking: The Bottom Turn

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by Bill McBride on 6/13/2018 09:49:00 AM Update: Watching existing home “for sale” inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing […]

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Sales Unchanged YoY, Active Inventory up 30% YoY

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by Bill McBride on 6/12/2018 08:01:00 PM Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for May from the BLS. The consensus is a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI. […]

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Did the Rebound in Oil Prices Rescue the Houston Housing Market?

Did the Rebound in Oil Prices Rescue the Houston Housing Market?

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by Bill McBride on 6/12/2018 04:26:00 PM Two years ago I asked: Will the Rebound in Oil Prices Rescue the Houston Housing Market? When inventory was declining just about everywhere, inventory was rising in Houston as oil prices declined a few years ago.   More recently, as  oil prices rebounded, inventory has been declining year […]

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Don't miss on these awesome GitHub Repositories & Reddit Threads for Data Science & Machine Learning (May 2018)

Don’t miss on these awesome GitHub Repositories & Reddit Threads for Data Science & Machine Learning (May 2018)

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Introduction GitHub and Reddit both serve as interesting discovery platforms for me. I not only learn some of the best applications of data science, but also see how they have been written and will hopefully be contributing to some of these repositories in future. GitHub was acquired by Microsoft recently in a multi-billion dollar deal. […]

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Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in May

Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/12/2018 11:07:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) in May. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.1% annualized rate) during the month. […]

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CPI increased 0.2% in May, Core CPI increased 0.2%

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by Bill McBride on 6/12/2018 08:33:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in May on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.8 percent […]

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Small Business Optimism Index increased in May

Small Business Optimism Index increased in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/12/2018 06:00:00 AM From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): May 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index increased in May to the second highest level in the NFIB survey’s 45-year history. The index rose to 107.8, a three-point gain, with small businesses reporting high numbers […]

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Tuesday: CPI

Tuesday: CPI

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From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Near Recent Highs Mortgage rates edged up to the highest levels in several weeks today. Only a handful of days from mid-May stand between current levels and the highest rates in 7 years. That sounds a bit more dramatic than it is. Rates have been pretty […]

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Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

Real Estate Agent Boom and Bust

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by Bill McBride on 6/11/2018 02:53:00 PM Way back in 2005, I posted a graph of the Real Estate Agent Boom. Here is another update to the graph. The graph shows the number of real estate licensees in California. The number of agents peaked at the end of 2007 (housing activity peaked in 2005, and […]

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Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly negative in Q1

Mortgage Equity Withdrawal slightly negative in Q1

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by Bill McBride on 6/11/2018 12:21:00 PM Note: This is not Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW) data from the Fed. The last MEW data from Fed economist Dr. Kennedy was for Q4 2008. The following data is calculated from the Fed’s Flow of Funds data (released yesterday) and the BEA supplement data on single family structure […]

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DataHack Radio #1 - Machine Learning Competitions with Kaggle CEO Anthony Goldbloom!

DataHack Radio #1 – Machine Learning Competitions with Kaggle CEO Anthony Goldbloom!

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Introduction We are incredibly excited to announce the launch of DataHack Radio! This is Analytics Vidhya’s exclusive podcast series which will feature Kunal Jain in conversation with top leaders and practitioners in the data science and machine learning industry. In every episode of DataHack Radio, we will bring you discussions with one such thought leader […]

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DataHack Radio - Deep Learning, Open Source Research with Tarry Singh

DataHack Radio – Deep Learning, Open Source Research with Tarry Singh

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Introduction Tarry Singh is an AI neuroscience researcher and one of the more popular social media influencers in the data science and machine learning community. He has over 17 years of experience working with data and has advised CXOs of global organizations to setup data-driven organizations from scratch. He speaks regularly at global AI leadership […]

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"Now, back to the Permian Show"

“Now, back to the Permian Show”

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by Bill McBride on 6/10/2018 10:30:00 AM A few comments from Steven Kopits of Princeton Energy Advisors LLC on June 8, 2018: • Total US oil rigs were up 1 to 862 • Horizontal oil rigs added 5 to 763…• The Permian gained 7; the Cana Woodford gave back 3 • Since last July’s peak, […]

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Schedule for Week of June 10, 2018

Schedule for Week of June 10, 2018

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by Bill McBride on 6/09/2018 08:11:00 AM The key economic reports this week are the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales. For manufacturing, May industrial production, and the June New York survey, will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate 25bps. —– […]

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"What you are getting is a stimulus at the very wrong moment"

“What you are getting is a stimulus at the very wrong moment”

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by Bill McBride on 6/08/2018 04:42:00 PM This discussion with Ben Bernanke is worth watching. He discusses monetary policy, QE, and the poor timing of the recent fiscal stimulus (something I’ve mentioned several times). The Bernanke portion of the video ends around the 35 minute mark. Source link

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Rail Carloads Up 3.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.6% YoY

Rail Carloads Up 3.2% YoY, Intermodal Up 6.6% YoY

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by Bill McBride on 6/08/2018 11:19:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. The U.S. economy is clicking right now, and freight railroads are both beneficiaries and enablers of that. In May 2018, originated carloads on U.S. railroads were up 3.2% over May 2017, the […]

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Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-Year, On Record Annual Pace

Occupancy Rate increased Year-over-Year, On Record Annual Pace

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by Bill McBride on 6/08/2018 08:58:00 AM From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 2 June The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 27 May through 2 June 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 28 May […]

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Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in May

Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Increases in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/07/2018 04:01:00 PM Note: This index is possibly a leading indicator for new non-residential Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment, except manufacturing. From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Inches Up in May The Dodge Momentum Index eked out a small gain in May, moving 1.8% higher to 167.8 (2000=100) from the […]

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Household Net Worth increased in Q1

Household Net Worth increased in Q1

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by Bill McBride on 6/07/2018 01:25:00 PM The Federal Reserve released the Q1 2018 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds. According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q1 2018 compared to Q4 2017: The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $100.8 trillion during the first quarter of 2018. The […]

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Sales Down 10% YoY, Inventory down 12%

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by Bill McBride on 6/07/2018 09:49:00 AM This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices keep rising, approaching all-time peak; GLVAR housing statistics […]

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“Mortgage Rates Up To 3-Week Highs”

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by Bill McBride on 6/06/2018 04:35:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Up To 3-Week Highs Mortgage rates rose today, resuming an upward trend that began last week after political turmoil in Italy began to die down. More simply put, rates had been rising in mid May. Italy’s political turmoil caused […]

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Unsupervised Deep Learning Algorithms for Computer Vision

Unsupervised Deep Learning Algorithms for Computer Vision

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Introduction It is often said that in machine learning (and more specifically deep learning) – it’s not the person with the best algorithm that wins, but the one with the most data. We can always try and collect or generate more labelled data but it’s an expensive and time consuming task. This is where the […]

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Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

Mortgage Rates and Ten Year Yield

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by Bill McBride on 6/06/2018 12:20:00 PM With the ten year yield getting close to 3%, there has been some discussion about whether mortgage rates would hit 5% soon. Based on an historical relationship, 30-year rates should currently be around 4.75%. As of yesterday, Mortgage News Daily reported: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Mortgage rates were […]

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Trade Deficit decreased to $46.2 Billion in April

Trade Deficit decreased to $46.2 Billion in April

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by Bill McBride on 6/06/2018 09:18:00 AM From the Department of Commerce reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $46.2 billion in April, down $1.0 billion from $47.2 billion in March, revised. … April exports were $211.2 billion, $0.6 billion more […]

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Calculated Risk: Wednesday: Trade Deficit

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by Bill McBride on 6/05/2018 07:25:00 PM Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $49.0 billion in April […]

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Underwriting Loosening for Conventional Conforming Loans

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by Bill McBride on 6/05/2018 05:01:00 PM Some interesting data and analysis from Archana Pradhan at CoreLogic: Underwriting Loosening for Conventional Conforming Loans Mortgage underwriting guidelines have loosened in the last couple of years. To expand the credit box to creditworthy borrowers, Fannie Mae began accepting mortgages with loan-to-value (LTV) ratios up to 97 percent […]

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ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.6% in May

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 58.6% in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/05/2018 12:08:00 PM The May ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 58.6%, up from 56.8% in April. The employment index increased in May to 54.1%, from 53.6%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: May 2018 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® Economic activity in the […]

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Job Openings Increased in April to New Series High

Job Openings Increased in April to New Series High

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by Bill McBride on 6/05/2018 10:07:00 AM A milestone: In April there were 6.698 million job openings, and, according to the April Employment report, there were 6.346 million unemployed. So there are now more job openings than unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015. […]

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House Prices up 6.9% Year-over-year in April

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by Bill McBride on 6/05/2018 08:00:00 AM Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for April. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for March. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports April Home Prices Up, Washington State Increased 12.8 Percent CoreLogic® … […]

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Job Openings, ISM non-Mfg Survey

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by Bill McBride on 6/04/2018 08:05:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Continue Higher Mortgage rates continued higher, adding onto a trend that began last Wednesday. A day earlier, rates hit their best levels in more than a month due to political risks in Europe. The trend back toward higher rates […]

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On Pace to decline slightly in 2018

On Pace to decline slightly in 2018

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by Bill McBride on 6/04/2018 04:09:00 PM The BEA released their estimate of May vehicle sales this morning. The BEA estimated sales of 16.81 million SAAR in May 2018 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 1.8% from the April sales rate, and up slightly from May 2017. Through May, light vehicle sales are on pace to […]

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U.S. Births decreased in 2017

U.S. Births decreased in 2017

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by Bill McBride on 6/04/2018 11:04:00 AM From the National Center for Health Statistics: Births: Provisional Data for 2017. The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2017 was 3,853,472, down 2% from 2016 and the lowest number in 30 years. The general fertility rate was 60.2 births per 1,000 […]

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Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for April

Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for April

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by Bill McBride on 6/04/2018 09:03:00 AM Black Knight released their Mortgage Monitor report for April today. According to Black Knight, 3.67% of mortgages were delinquent in April, down from 4.08% in April 2017. Black Knight also reported that 0.61% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from 0.85% a year ago. This gives […]

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Creating A Sense Of Urgency For Higher Conversions Rates!

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By every indicator available, ecommerce is continuing to grow at an insane speed. Although it may seem impossible to imagine with ecommerce already totaling up to 5% of overall commerce, there’s astronomical growth still to come. Still, I’m heartbroken that some the simplest elements of ecommerce stink so much. It is 2018—why are there still […]

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Comprehensive Data Science, Machine Learning Interview Guide

Comprehensive Data Science, Machine Learning Interview Guide

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Introduction Are you aspiring to become a data scientist, but struggling to crack the interviews? Well – you’re not alone! Getting a break in the data science field can be difficult. Doubly so, if you’re coming from a non-data science background (which in all likelihood you are). The stories you hear from other aspiring data […]

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Job Openings Increased in March to New Series High

Schedule for Week of June 3, 2018

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by Bill McBride on 6/02/2018 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is the Trade Deficit on Wednesday. —– Monday, June 4th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, June 5th —– 10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for April from the BLS. This graph shows job openings (yellow line), […]

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.9 million annual rate in May

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales decrease to 16.9 million annual rate in May

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by Bill McBride on 6/01/2018 03:25:00 PM Based on a preliminary estimate from AutoData, light vehicle sales were at a 16.9 million SAAR in May. That is up 1% year-over-year from April 2017, and down 1% from last month. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the […]

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